Forecast Less and Get Better Results

Press Release from Supply Chain Consultants: ” Supply Chain Consultants, designer and supplier of the Zemeter suite of supply chain management (SCM) software products, today announced the release of “Forecast Less and Get Better Results,” co-authored by industry experts, Tom Wallace and Bob Stahl. Findings in the study indicate that detailed forecasting and planning are not necessary over the long-term, and can even lead to less accurate results that require more work to obtain them. The full report is available on Supply Chain Consultants’ (SCC) web site:”

Tom Wallace, co-author of the report, said, “In today’s era of Lean Manufacturing and Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP), it has become more apparent that the approach of a highly detailed long-term forecast is not necessary. Instead, an aggregate planning tool that only uses detailed analysis for a short-term plan produces more valid results with better indicators of the future. Additionally, an aggregate approach in executive S&OP requires less work and enables a company to perform valid simulations quickly.”

The important task of getting products to customers centers around four fundamentals: demand, supply, volume and mix. The report challenges conventional forecasting and planning wisdom that states that companies need to project forecasts and plans far into the future at a detailed, highly granular level. By performing detailed analysis only for short-term planning, companies can expect three main benefits:

– More valid results, with projections that offer better indicators of the future;

– The ability to more easily focus on big-picture issues including economic indicators, competitors, market share changes, new product launches and end-of-life issues;

– Less work to generate results, a significant factor for a process like executive S&OP that happens on a monthly basis.

“The findings of this report stress that the new method of using an aggregate approach is not only better, but also simpler,” said Dominick Corigliano, Supply Chain Consultants’ vice president of sales and marketing. “Executive S&OP, operating on a volume level and built on valid assumptions, facilitates decision-making, enables simulation and risk assessment, and makes possible a more responsive, proactive way of doing business.”

About the Authors

Tom Wallace has more than 30 years of experience in the areas of supply chains and manufacturing. He has authored more than ten books, including Sales & Operations Planning: The How-To Handbook, 2nd Edition. Wallace is a Distinguished Fellow at Ohio State’s Center for Excellence in Manufacturing Management.

Bob Stahl has spent the last 30 years developing, teaching and helping a number of the world’s leading corporations implement leading-edge processes for manufacturing, logistics and supply chain management. Wallace and Stahl have co-authored a number of books together, including: Sales & Operations Planning: The How-To Executive’s Guide, Sales & Operations Planning: The Self-Audit Workbook, Building to Customer Demand, Sales Forecasting: A New Approach, and Master Scheduling in the 21st Century.

About Supply Chain Consultants

Supply Chain Consultants, founded in 1993, is a supply chain management software and services company with headquarters in Wilmington, Del., and European operations located in Antwerp, Belgium. SCC’s Zemeter software and related services help manufacturers better plan demand, manage inventories, plan production and replenishment, and schedule operations. Zemeter enhances productivity and reduces operating costs at a wide variety of companies including Hexion Chemicals, Terra Industries, INEOS, Sunsweet Growers and ANADIGICS. For more information, see www.supplychain.com .

Full report is available from:

http://www.supplychain.com/downloads/Forecast_Less_and_Get_Better_Results.pdf

This entry was posted in Emerging Trends, Information Technology, New Ideas, Supply Chain Management. Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed.